Comments on: Stories from the Great Recession http://leedsonfinance.com/2010/03/08/stories-from-the-great-recession/ Sandy Leeds' Analysis of Key Market Issues Wed, 24 Mar 2010 14:35:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Mike Greczyn http://leedsonfinance.com/2010/03/08/stories-from-the-great-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-7252 Mike Greczyn Wed, 10 Mar 2010 04:11:22 +0000 http://leedsonfinance.com/?p=1474#comment-7252 Don't beat your generation up too hard, Sandy. I started my professional (and investing) life in July 1999 when I commissioned into the US Air Force. That's also the year I invested my first dollar. I bought my first house in 2003. While that might not be the case for everyone in my generation, it probably is close to the truth for many of us. That means that for our entire investing lives, my generation has seen a negative return on our investments in stocks and houses. We are left to take prior generations' word for it that if we buy enough of these things (stocks and houses), than in the long run we will be able to have some sort of comfortable, reasonably financially-independent existence. If I could go back and give one piece of advice to 2Lt Greczyn in 1999, it would be to stick all that money in a savings account. I'd be much better off today if I had. Buying stocks feels like a huge leap of faith for me. History tells me to keep doing it, so I do, but sometimes it feels like I'm lighting cash on fire. Don’t beat your generation up too hard, Sandy. I started my professional (and investing) life in July 1999 when I commissioned into the US Air Force. That’s also the year I invested my first dollar. I bought my first house in 2003. While that might not be the case for everyone in my generation, it probably is close to the truth for many of us. That means that for our entire investing lives, my generation has seen a negative return on our investments in stocks and houses. We are left to take prior generations’ word for it that if we buy enough of these things (stocks and houses), than in the long run we will be able to have some sort of comfortable, reasonably financially-independent existence. If I could go back and give one piece of advice to 2Lt Greczyn in 1999, it would be to stick all that money in a savings account. I’d be much better off today if I had. Buying stocks feels like a huge leap of faith for me. History tells me to keep doing it, so I do, but sometimes it feels like I’m lighting cash on fire.

]]> By: DJ Dodson http://leedsonfinance.com/2010/03/08/stories-from-the-great-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-7249 DJ Dodson Tue, 09 Mar 2010 15:28:33 +0000 http://leedsonfinance.com/?p=1474#comment-7249 Dr. Leeds, Thanks for the insightful "four common features between the US and Ireland:" 1 Irrational exuberance – the belief that high prices would go higher 2. Cheap capital – China financed the US and Ireland was financed by the EU and especially Germany 3. Players had the incentive to take risk (they did not bear the risk of loss) 4. Regulatory imprudence ---and their suggested counterpoints: a. Irrational pessimism b. Expensive capital c. No incentive for risk d. Regulatory straight-jackets Quantitatively analyzing international markets & macro-economics over the last 4 decades suggests to me only increased volatility & greater variances - where the only constant seems to be: increased duration of "irrational!" Thanks. D.J. Dodson USCG Vet Dr. Leeds,
Thanks for the insightful “four common features between the US and Ireland:”

1 Irrational exuberance – the belief that high prices would go higher
2. Cheap capital – China financed the US and Ireland was financed by the EU and especially Germany
3. Players had the incentive to take risk (they did not bear the risk of loss)
4. Regulatory imprudence

—and their suggested counterpoints:

a. Irrational pessimism
b. Expensive capital
c. No incentive for risk
d. Regulatory straight-jackets

Quantitatively analyzing international markets & macro-economics over the last 4 decades suggests to me only increased volatility & greater variances – where the only constant seems to be:
increased duration of “irrational!”

Thanks.

D.J. Dodson USCG Vet

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